Price Movement The gold daily chart reveals a significant bullish trend that persisted from May to early November, characterized by a steady rise with minor corrections. The price reached a peak around the 2,790 level, but this was followed by a sharp decline, indicating increased selling pressure. Subsequently, the price has been consolidating, finding support […]

Gold Price Movement Summary The daily chart of Gold shows a significant uptrend from mid-June to early November, with prices rising steeply. The asset reached a peak near 2790 before forming a double top pattern, indicating a possible reversal. Following this, Gold experienced a decline, moving within a downward channel. As of late December, the […]

The downtrend in gold prices continued last week after turning back from the previous week’s high of 2726.The decline accelerated after the Fed’s interest rate meeting on Wednesday, failing to support at 2630(1) and falling back to a near three-month low near 2585.Then on Friday, US inflation data came down slightly, causing gold to bounce back above 2600 to close the week at 2622 (down $25 from the previous week).

As mentioned 2 weeks ago, there will be significant profit taking above 2700 while the year came close to the end. After the Fed’s meeting, the market fundamentals began to change again. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the number of interest rate cuts will be reduced in 2025, from the previously expected 4 times to 2 times; next year’s relatively high inflation and high-interest rate environment will bring support to the US dollar while keeping gold prices under pressure. The new U.S. President’s tariff policy will be the dominate factor to lead the gold price next year.

>

1-Hour Chart (Above) > Gold price rebounded after hitting 2583 late last week, forming a S-T bottom. Expect the rebound top near 2650. The market should be relatively quiet this week, take 2580-2650 as the trading range for now until the market develop further this week.

>

Daily Chart (Above) > Gold was rejected by 2700 twice on the daily chart, forming a double top pattern (3). Short selling should control the market as it cleared the support by the double top neckline (3.1) last week. After the current S-T rebound, the downtrend should resume and expected the price to return to around 2540-50 in the next 2 weeks. M-T operating range would be 2535-2730(4).

P. To

Despite the initial drop on Monday, the gold price was relatively quiet last week.

The price shot up to around 2710 due to all the geopolitical tensions the week before. But then, it quickly retreated after an uneventful weekend. The risk premium dramatically reduced as the Asian market opened on Monday, leading to gold prices falling below 2700 early in the session. During the U.S. trading session on the same day, Trump announced the preliminary tariff policies on China, Canada, and Mexico via social media. The market anticipated a continued high-interest environment in the U.S. until 2025, exerting pressure on gold prices once more, causing them to dip below 2650(1). Gold prices stabilized thereafter, with a holiday atmosphere prevailing, prices rebounded throughout the week, closing near 2650.

Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations in the past couple of weeks due to the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Palestine situations. However, as tensions ease, the upward momentum for price has waned. Heading into the final month of 2024, the gold market continues to be influenced by profit-taking sentiments, as the number of open interests in COMEX gold futures dropped, from 560,000 in early November to 450,000 last Friday. Unless there are significant changes in the fundamentals, gold prices are expected to keep consolidating.

This week, the focus will be on Friday’s US employment data, with market expectations suggesting a rebound in non-farm payrolls to 200,000. Gold prices are likely to face some pressure before the data is released.

>

1-hr chart(above) > Early in the Asian session today, the S-T trend turned bearish as the gold prices dipped below the support line(2). Strong selling resistance appeared near 2665 at the end of last week, suggesting initial operations within the 2600-2665(3) range. If this week’s US job data performs well in the latter part of the week, the gold price may once again visit below 2600.

>

Daily chart(above) > The overall trend for gold prices continues to adjust towards the 2600 mark, as mentioned last week. The significant selling pressure on Monday (4) is expected to continue influencing the S-T direction. The daily chart range is set between 2605-2665, and if there’s a downward breakout later this week, the downside target could be set around the 100-day MA near 2574 (6).

P. To

Technical rebound + Russia/Ukraine situation rapidly deteriorated, causing gold prices to rebound strongly over $150 last week.

Following the rebound from the week before, the gold price opened at 2562 and quickly reached our target of 2620 early last week. Russia and Ukraine exchanged missiles and Putin eased the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, boosting the gold price further. By the end of the week, the gold price reached the weekly high of 2715 as the market priced in the risk premium right before the weekend.

The gold price retreated sharply back from the weekend, falling to as low as 2658 in the Asian secession on Monday. We can expect the investment market to be relatively quiet this week as Thanksgiving weekend is approaching. Geopolitical situations will continue to dominate the gold trend this week. Since the gold price has surged over 20% from the beginning of the year, as long as the situation in Ukraine does not intensify, the price above 2,700 should be a good opportunity for institutional funds to seize profits from the beginning of the year before the year’s end.

>

1-hr chart (above) > Gold price has entered a horizontal range pattern after it crossed the downward trend resistance line (1) last week. Take advantage of the 2650-2710(2) for now, and pay close attention to the development of the situation in Russia/Ukraine, the market may price in the risk premium once again before the Thanksgiving long weekend!

>

Daily chart (above) > The rapid correction in the Asian session on Monday is causing a reversal signal to appear on the daily chart(3). Wait for the price to close below 2670 on Monday, once the reversal signal is completed, the price should return to 2600 or lower in the next two weeks.

P. To