EUR find the botton yet?

2024-12-28 @ 20:58

Price Movement

The EUR/USD currency pair has experienced significant volatility recently. The pair was initially in a downward trend but appears to establish a base support around the 1.03330 level. The price action shows several tests of this support, indicating its strength. Despite previous bearish momentum, a minor bullish correction seems to be occurring as the price hovers above the 1.04000 level. This consolidation near the lower Fibonacci level suggests potential for either a reversal or continuation of the downtrend, depending on fundamental drivers and technical indicators.

Technical Analysis

Support and Resistance Levels: Strong support around 1.03330; resistance near 1.04665.

Moving Averages: Short-term SMAs indicate bearish alignment, with price below the SMA lines.

Fibonacci Retracement: Key levels at 0.236 (1.05412) and 0 (1.03329) suggesting potential retracement zones.

MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, though a potential crossover is forming, indicating possible bullish momentum.

Trendlines: A descending triangle pattern emerges, usually a bearish continuation pattern.

Outlook

Given the technical indicators and chart patterns, the outlook for EUR/USD is cautiously bearish. While the formation of a potential bull signal in the MACD could imply a short-term corrective rally, overall momentum supported by the descending triangle suggests further decline unless the price can break and sustain above the 1.04665 resistance. Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout beyond this level for potential longs or a breakdown below 1.03330 to affirm bearish continuity. Monitoring economic data releases and geopolitical factors, which could drive volatility, is also crucial for making informed trading decisions.