Gold Trend 19/04

Gold fell to a 2-week low of 2391 at the beginning of last week, but buying has resumed after a weaker-than-expected US GDP Q1 data, leading the price to reach 2352 before the US session on Friday. There were no surprises in the release of the U.S. inflation figures on that day; therefore, the market was relatively quiet before the weekend. Two major U.S. economic news are expected this week: the Fed. meeting on May 1st and the U.S. employment figures on Friday. As geopolitical risks in the Middle East fade out, the U.S. interest rate trend will now become the focal point of gold traders. According to CME FedWatch, 99.5% of the chances that the Fed. will keep interest rates unchanged this week (Unchanged – 97% in June / Unchanged – 68% in July). Expect the market to stay in a tight range before the Fed. meeting. If the Fed. announcement leans toward a more hawkish tone, just like Powell’s speech 2 weeks back; some more selling momentum will add to the gold price.

1-Hr Chart—Gold prices broke out from the S-T uptrend channel(1.1) in the Asian session early Monday. As the price escape channel(1), the upward momentum is now slowing down. Take advantage of the 2318-55(2) range in S-T until the Fed. meeting. If gold prices fall below the 2318-28 support zone earlier than expected, the next support level will be at 2300, and the descending channel (3) will dominate the trend for the rest of the week.

Daily Chart – The price fell back below the 20-day MA(5) after the rejection of the 10-day MA(4) last Friday, and the short-selling pressure has been increasing since then. The Fed announcement should dominate the gold price trend in the coming weeks; be patient with the news and the breakout caused by it. Before the next major move, trade the 2290-2351(6) range. If gold prices fall further, the next target will be near 2260(7).

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