2024-01-29 @ 10:40
黃金上週整體在窄幅區間內震蕩，早段週一至週三都在2020-40內上落 ~ 合付我們預期。直到週三美國公佈第四季GDP數據優於預期，金價終於失守2020(2)，最低回到2010。本週2大重磅消息，首先是週三交易日(週四凌晨)的美聯儲議息會議，現時超過95%預期利息維持不變(by CME’s FedWatch)，關鍵是公佈的會後聲明…以今屆聯儲局加息早期拖拖拉拉的作風，相信滅息情況亦不會大刀闊斧。除非Powell發表出付意料的言論，否則三月…甚至五月減息的機會可能只會繼續維持5-6成；而本週尾段的美國就業數據，相信相比預期亦不會有太大落差，初步預期可能會為金價帶來下行壓力。現時金價仍未有條件作出突破，可繼續盡情地把握區間操作模式。 1小時圖 – 上週三跌穿2020(2)，價格從2010附近低位開始反彈，未有觸及上次2001低位(5)，暫時反映2010下的買盤(多單)明顯轉強。今日亞盤開市現貨黃金價格現回到2020之上。在過去48小時已形成短線的上升通道(4)，美議息會議前應有機會再次上週阻力區2035-40(1)。 日線圖 – 本週中/後期市場的不確定性會增加，必須小心技術形態上的突破。現時上方阻力區在2030-40(9)，而未來2個交易日可繼續把握20天移動均線(8); 上升支持線(6)繼續有效，若出現突破，區間(7)底部2001會時下一支持。 短線阻力 3 2040 短線阻力 2 2035 短線阻力 1 2030 現價 2024 短線支持 1 2020-2 短線支持 2 2015 短線阻力 3 2010 P. To 風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，我們絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
2024-01-22 @ 10:36
受上比預期做好的美國零售數據影響，金價跌穿2020關鍵支持，觸及近一個月低位2001。但沽盤(空單)比預期弱，金價未有再試低位，在2020以下徘徊約24小時，週五收盤前返彈到全日最高2039，而全週收盤在2029。 1小時圖 – 黃金上週五重上2020以上，合付我們週四的預期。震蕩區間經過上週擴闊至2000-2065(2)後，短線應該難以突破。本週早段初步操作區間在2020-40(3)，直到本週較後時間應會再試區間(2)頂部2065。 日線圖 – 金價上週尾段回到2020之上，橫行結構(4)繼續有效。留意上方20天移動均線(5)。繼續把握區間操作。 短線阻力 3 2040 短線阻力 2 2035 短線阻力 1 2030 現價 2026 短線支持 1 2020-2 短線支持 2 2015 短線阻力 3 2010 P. To 風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，我們絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
2024-01-18 @ 13:23
Gold prices have retreated from the high over the past two days. Yesterday, after the release of US retail sales data, it broke below last week’s low at 2013 (1), reaching a recent bottom of 2001 and the day ended at 2005.
1-hour chart – The trading range mentioned on Monday (2015-2065) was completed before yesterday’s US session. Influenced by the release of US data, prices fell below last week’s low (1). The support at 2000 is still relatively strong. Therefore, I expect the price to be bounded between 2000-20(2) in the next 24 hours. Unless the price breaks below the key support level at 2000, the overall trading pattern will likely be based on the expanded range of 2000-2065 (3).
Daily chart – The trend has been weak after a consecutive two-day decline of over $20, and it has breached the support zone of 2015-2022(4). With yesterday’s closing price near the daily low, the price action may suggest that there is still a chance of testing the 2000 level again today. Be alert; if it clears the buying orders at the support of 2000, the next target can be set around 1980 (5).
Weekly chart – The market is still focused on how soon the Fed will begin its first rate cut. According to CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in March has dropped from 70% at the beginning of the week to only 60% now. It is important to pay attention to upcoming US data releases and the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve in January over the next few weeks. If US data continues to show strength, the timing of a rate cut may be delayed, and there could be a potential adjustment to lower levels in the M-T gold price (6).
S-T ressitance 3
2030
S-T ressitance 2
2020-22
S-T ressitance 1
2010-13
Market price
2008
S-T support 1
2000
S-T support 2
1995
S-T support 3
1990
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
2024-01-18 @ 11:30
金價過去2天從高位回落，昨日美國公佈零售數據後，失守上週低位2013(1)，全日最低2001，最終收盤在2005。 1小時圖 – 週一提及的區間(2015-65)操作，在昨日美盤前已經完成。受美國數據公佈影響，昨日價格跌穿上週低位(1)，但現時2000附近支持仍然較強。未來24小時預期價格將在2000-20(2)區間短線震蕩，除非突破2000關鍵支持，否則整體會以擴大了的區間2000-65(3)為操作藍本。 日線圖 – 走勢相對較弱，連續2日超過20美元的跌勢，失守支持區2015-22(4)，加上昨日收盤貼近全日低位收市，反影日內仍有機會再試2000附近低位。留意若成功跌穿2000支持，下一支持會在1980(5) 週線圖 – 市場仍以美聯儲減息為焦點，跟據CME-FedWatch，現時3月份減息機會率已回落到只有60%。必須留意未來幾週的美國數據及1月美聯儲會議的會後聲明，若美國數據持續強勢，減息時間會延遲，中線金價在機會調整至更低水平(6)。 短線阻力 3 2030 短線阻力 2 2020-22 短線阻力 1 2010-13 現價 2008 短線支持 1 2000 短線支持 2 1995 短線阻力 3 1990 P. To 風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，我們絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
2024-01-15 @ 10:38
Gold tested the support at 2020 twice last week and officially bottomed out after the release of US inflation data. It then rebounded and reached a high of 2062 before closing the week at 2048. However, it failed to hold above the 2050 level.
1-hour chart – Gold broke through the downward resistance line(1), originating from the 2088 peak during the US trading session last Fri, marking the end of the S-T downward cycle on the hourly chart. The price again surpassed the 2050 resistance late last week, showing a sign of the selling resistance gradually weakening at that level. The trading range is expected to broaden, expanding from the previous range of 2020-50 to 2015-2065(2).
Daily chart – After gold broke away from the upward support(3), it touched the 50-day MA last week (6), forming a sideways structure in the range of 2015-2065(4). Flow with the 2015-65(4) range for now, with S-T support at 2048 (20-day MA) and a stop-loss above the resistance zone of 2070-2079.
S-T ressitance 3
2065
S-T ressitance 2
2060
S-T ressitance 1
2056
Market price
2055
S-T support 1
2048-50
S-T support 2
2043
S-T support 3
2040
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
2024-01-15 @ 10:12
黃金在上週2次測試2020底部支持，在美國公佈通脹數據後正式見底反彈，隨後觸及高位2062，全週收盤在2048，未能企穩2050之上。 1小時圖 – 上週五美盤交易時段正式突破了源自2088高位的下降阻力線(1)，1小時圖的短線下降週期已正式完結。上週尾再次穿越2050阻力，現時2050的沽盤(空單)阻力正漸漸減弱，預期震蕩區間將會擴闊，由上週提及的2020-50擴大至2015-65(2)。 日線圖 – 自黃金脫離上升支持(3)後，上週觸及50天移動均線後(6)，橫行結構2015-65(4)已形成。現時可繼續把握區間(4)操作，短線支持在2048(20天移動均線)，上方止損在阻力區2070-79。 短線阻力 3 2065 短線阻力 2 2060 短線阻力 1 2056 現價 2055 短線支持 1 2048-50 短線支持 2 2043 短線阻力 3 2040 P. To 風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，我們絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
2024-01-08 @ 10:55
Gold pulled back from its recent high last week, rejected by 2078 early during Monday’s US session. It cleared the 2050(1) support on Wed., triggering a round of selling and falling to an early weekly low of 2030. The price stayed within the range of 2035-2050, waiting for the release of US job data. When the data was announced, there was an increase in volatility; however, the closing price didn’t show any significant changes.
1-hour chart – Gold price is still fluctuating within the range of 2035-2050 after the US job data. In the past 48 trading hours, an S-T support has formed, and traders can consider utilizing the triangle pattern(2). Expect a breakout within the next 24 hours. The key event for this week will be the release of US core inflation data on Thursday.
Daily chart – A strong US job data last Friday has led to a strong US dollar punching the gold prices lower. On the other hand, it also reinforced expectations of an early interest rate cut, indicating a potential “soft landing” for the US economy, lifting the gold price up. The market as a result still lacks a clear direction. The 20-day MA(4) remains critical; and the previously mentioned upward support line (6) is still valid, and attention should be given to the larger triangle pattern on the daily chart (5) this week. Within the next 5-7 days, it is crucial for gold to break above the resistance zone of 2070-2080; if it fails to do so, the price will escape the upward support (6), and the overall structure on the daily chart will enter a sideways pattern.
S-T ressitance 3
2055-1
S-T ressitance 2
2050
S-T ressitance 1
2046
Market price
2045
S-T support 1
2044
S-T support 2
2039-40
S-T support 3
2035
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
2024-01-08 @ 10:17
黃金上週從高位回落，週一美盤先試全週高位(2078)後回落，週三失守2050(1)支持後觸發一輪沽盤(空單)，跌至早段低位2030。等待美就業數據公佈前整體在2035-50區間內震蕩，數據公佈時波幅放大，但最終收市價格仍未有出現明顯變化。 １小時圖 – 現時金價仍在美就業數據公佈前2035-50區間內上落，過去48交易小時形成了短線上升支持，短線可把握消化性三角形(2)操作。預期未來24小時應會有突破。本週關鍵會時週四公佈的美國核心通脹數據。 日線圖 – 20天移動平均線(4)仍然有效，經過上週五美就業數據後，數據做好讓美金走強令金價走弱，但同時亦強化美國經濟 “軟著陸” 提早減息的預期，令市場仍未有明確方向。早前提及的上升支持線(6)仍然有效，本週須留意日線圖較大的三角形趨勢(5)，未來1週必須突破上方阻力2070-80，否則日線圖將脫離上升支持(6)，結構將進入橫行格局。 短線阻力 3 2055 短線阻力 2 2050 短線阻力 1 2046 現價 2045 短線支持 1 2044 短線支持 2 2039-40 短線阻力 3 2035 P. To 風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，我們絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
2024-01-02 @ 12:30
Expect the price to consolidate further in S-T before the trading volume returns from the holiday. 1-hour chart – Gold prices reached a recent high of 2088 in early trading last Thu. However, it failed to hold above 2080. After the price escaped from the uptrend channel(1) at the end of last week, gold formed […]
