2024-04-22 @ 11:54
黃金上週走勢整體合乎預期，在高位橫行震蕩，未有突破。上週金市繼續被伊朗/以色列消息帶動，但自從伊朗在前週未首輪報複過後，市場對這方面消息已漸漸消化。上週五就算以色列作出相對反擊，金價亦只能沖上2420，很快已重回2400之下，相信本週地緣政治消息暫時難以讓金價再創新高。唯本週尾段必須留意週五的PCE通脹數據，雖然近期美國通脹有反彈跡象，但狀況其實仍跟財長耶倫3月初所講相差不遠，未算出現任何失控，週未前或會波幅擴大，但未必會有明顯突破，除非數據出現驚喜。 1小時圖 – 自從上週四金價擺脫上升通道(1)後，短線上升趨勢正式放緩，預期本週初走勢相對窄幅2355-2400(2)。週中過後波幅應會擴闊，以2318-2430(3)為操作區域。不確定性隱藏在週五的通脹數據，是否突破仍要等消息公佈前後。 日線圖 – 買盤在2400以上仍然較薄弱，未能將金價維系在2400之上。短線金價支持在10天移動均線(4)，若價格進一步調整，下方須留意2314 – 20天移動均線(5)。金價兩試2400之上，現時沽盤(空單)在2400以上主導，若金價有一天在日線圖收盤在2400-30(6)內，將反映2400以上的沽盤已被清除，會是往上突破的第一個訊號。 短線阻力 3 2388-90 短線阻力 2 2380 短線阻力 1 2370-72 現價 2369 短線支持 1 2360 短線支持 2 2355 短線阻力 3 2350 P. To
2024-04-15 @ 11:44
The rapid retraction from the new high suggests the gold price has entered a short-term correction period.
Gold reached a new all-time high of 2431 last Friday after the US market opened, but the price quickly retreated. It lost key support of 2400 and 2380, falling back to the bottom support of Thursday near 2330, ending the weekly at 2343 with a slight increase of 13 dollars. The market had been anticipating retaliatory actions from Iran following the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, creating a relatively tense environment that led to the climb in gold prices in the past two weeks. There was noticeable profit-taking in the market, coincidentally 24 hours before Iran’s retaliation. After the long-awaited Iran’s retaliatory action, the risk sentiment decreased abruptly; although gold opened with a gap of around 10 dollars on Monday’s Asian session, the movement remained relatively calm. The S-T upward trend began to slow down after the rapid retracement on Friday. At this point, we can expect a range-bound consolidation to begin to form this week.
1-Hr Chart – The gold price has been steadily climbing along the upward trend channel(1) since it broke through the 2300 resistance at the night of the non-farm payroll at the beginning of the month. The price is still sitting within the upward channel(1). However, S-T resistance is expected around 2375-2380 after the market experienced significant volatility on Friday. For now, the trading range for this week can be set at around 2318-2380(2).
Daily Chart – After the reversal in gold price last Friday, there is a clear indication of a potential peak (3). As long as the closing price in the next two days remains below 2373 (4), a more noticeable correction is likely to occur. The initial target for this correction can be set around the 20-day moving average (5).
Monthly Chart – It is important to note that the gold price is approaching the upper boundaries of the long-term upward channels (6) and (7). For the upward trend to continue, the gold price must break through the resistance line at the top of the channels. Otherwise, a correction in the overall trend may be needed.
S-T ressitance 3
2380
S-T ressitance 2
2370-72
S-T ressitance 1
2365
Market price
2359
S-T support 1
2350-52
S-T support 2
2345
S-T support 3
2338-40
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
2024-04-15 @ 11:01
黃金上週五美盤開市後創出歷史新高2431，但隨後快速回落，先後失守2400及2380關鍵支持，回落到週四早段的支持2330附近，收盤在2343，全週只上升13美元。金價自伊朗大使館在敘利亞受襲後，市場一直在等待伊朗的報複行動，處於相對緊張狀態，令金價持續爬升。而在伊朗正式報複前24小時，市場開始出現明顯獲利平倉，週一開市雖然金價裂口高開約10美元，但走勢相對穩定。伊朗報複行動過後，風險情緒驟減，加上金價經過週五高位拉回100美元，短線上升趨勢已開始放緩，初步預期本週會以區間調整為主。 1小時圖 – 金價自月初非農晚上突破2300阻力後，一直沿上升通道(1)往上。經過週五的大幅震蕩，雖然趨勢仍在上升通道當中，但預期2375-80會出現短線阻力，本週初步以2318-80(2)為操作區間。 日線圖 – 黃金自上週五的單日轉向後，出現明顯的見頂訊號(3)，只要未來2日收市價低於2373(4)，比較明顯的調整將會出現，第一目標暫時可定在20天移動均線(5)。 月線圖 – 須留意金價已貼近長線上升通道(6)和(7)的頂部，金價須突破通道頂部阻力線上升趨勢才能持續，否則整體趨勢須先作調整。 短線阻力 3 2380 短線阻力 2 2370-72 短線阻力 1 2365 現價 2359 短線支持 1 2350-52 短線支持 2 2345 短線阻力 3 2338-40 P. To
2024-03-25 @ 11:38
Following the Fed meeting, gold reached a new all-time high of 2222 last week. However, it failed to stay above 2200 and retraced quickly below the previous high of 2195 within 24 hours. This Friday is a US holiday, but the inflation data(PCE price index) will still be released. Make sure you pay close attention to market volatility at the late Friday session and the early Monday Asian session, and exercise caution in managing risks.
1-hr chart – The price broke through the S-T resistance(1) last week and reached our target range of 2185-2190 (2). Although it subsequently reached a new high, the price is now falling back to 2147-90(3). The resistance zone of 2186-90(2) is still valid. Take advantage of the rebound driven by the newly formed upward channel(4) at the beginning of this week, and expect the price to be bound within 2147-90 (3) in S-T until another news breaks out.
Daily chart – After the quick pull-back after the Fed. Meeting last week, a reserval signal(5) has appeared. Unless the gold price can close above 2190 on the daily chart, an S-T consolidation period is likely to occur in the next two weeks. Again, 2147 is the key support level, once its clear the next support will be at the 20-day MA.
S-T ressitance 3
2190
S-T ressitance 2
2185
S-T ressitance 1
2180
Market price
2175
S-T support 1
2168
S-T support 2
2165
S-T support 3
2155
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
2024-03-25 @ 10:33
國際金價在上週美聯儲議息會議後再創歷史新高2222，但一閃過後未能企穩2200以上。價格在24小時內回到前高2195之下。本週五是美國假期，但仍會有通脹數據公佈，務必留意週五交易尾段及週一早段市場波動擴大情況，小心控制風險。 1小時圖 – 金價在上週突破短線下降阻力(1)後，直達我們目標2185-90(2)。隨後雖然再創新高，但金價未能維持在2190之上，重回2147-90(3)區間之內。本週初可留意剛形成短線上升通道(4)所帶動的趨勢反彈，把握上方關鍵阻力2186-90(2)阻力高位，相信本週價格會繼續2147-90(3)區間內震蕩，直到市場有新消息刺激。 日線圖 – 上週議息會議後的衝高回落，在圖表上出現明顯的調整訊號(5)。除非金價在日線圖能收盤在2190之上，否則上週提及的 “蘊醞更深調整” 在議息會議後/未來2週應會出現。繼續留意2147支持及20天移動均線。 短線阻力 3 2168 短線阻力 2 2160 短線阻力 1 2155 現價 2152 短線支持 1 2147-50 短線支持 2 2140 短線阻力 3 2130 P. To
2024-03-18 @ 10:39
After reaching a new high of 2195, the gold price stayed sideways between 2155-85(1) last week. This week’s only major event will be the Fed meeting. Following the slight rebound in US core CPI data last week, expect the post-Fed meeting announcement to lean towards a hawkish stance, which could have a bearish impact on the gold price.
1-hr Chart – The gold price is still bounded within the range of 2155-85 (3), and it is currently trading under the S-T resistance line (2) that has been in place for the past few trading days. If the critical support level of 2147-2150(1) is breached, the next downside target can be set around 2120(4).
Daily Chart – Structurally, there hasn’t been any significant change on the daily chart, with the upward channel(5) remaining valid. The gold price is still standing above the previous high of 2147(7). If the buying support from the previous high of 2147(7) is cleared, a major correction toward 2120 should occur and pay attention to the next support at the 20-day MA(6).
S-T ressitance 3
2168
S-T ressitance 2
2160
S-T ressitance 1
2155
Market price
2152
S-T support 1
2147-50
S-T support 2
2140
S-T support 3
2130
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
2024-03-18 @ 09:34
黃金自創出新高2195後，上週價格整體在高位橫行震蕩。本週唯一重點香港時間週四凌晨的美聯儲議息會議，經過上週稍微反彈美國核心CPI數據，相信本週會後聲明亦會偏鹰，利淡金價。 1小時圖 – 金價現時仍在2155-85(3)區間之內，過去一週的短線下降阻力線(2)繼續有效，美聯儲議息會議前可繼續參考。若失守2147-50(1)關鍵支持，下方目標可定在2120(4)。 日線圖 – 結構上未有明顯變化，上升通道(5)繼續有效。現時仍在前高位2147(7)之上，若往下調整留意下方20天移動均線(6)在2103附近。 短線阻力 3 2168 短線阻力 2 2160 短線阻力 1 2155 現價 2152 短線支持 1 2147-50 短線支持 2 2140 短線阻力 3 2130 P. To
2024-03-11 @ 11:24
The gold price was unstoppable last week. It broke clear the December high of 2088 and surpassed the historical high of 2147. On Friday, even with better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, it continued to rise before the market closed, reaching a new all-time high of 2195. This week, the US will release core CPI and retail sales data on Tuesday and Thursday, if inflation slows down and the data disappoints, we can expect the gold price to continue its upward movement.
1-hr Chart – The gold price was rejected by 2190(1) again during the Asian session today. Since breaking through the resistance at 2147-2150 last week, an S-T upward channel(3) has formed in the past 48 hours. If the gold price breaks below the upward channel(3) after Tuesday’s data, the trading range can be set between 2155-85(2).
Daily Chart – After breaking through the December high of 2088 (4) last week, gold officially began its uptrend. The upside target 2190, estimated based on the previous consolidation range of 1:1 (4.1), has been reached. As the gold price is approaching the upper resistance of the M-T upward channel(5), the gold price has pullback(6) before the market closed on Friday. Keep an eye out; it would be the first signal of another surge if the gold price closes above 2178 on the daily chart in the next 2 days. Otherwise, a retreatment toward 2147-50 will begin.
P. To
2024-03-11 @ 10:47
金價上週勢不可檔，週一先突破12月尾高位2088，週四再升穿歷史高位2147，而週五就算美國非農公佈比預期更好，數據消化後在收市前亦繼續沖高，做出歷史新高2195，全週收盤在2178。本週二、四美國將公佈核心CPI及零售銷售數據，若通脹放緩及數據做差，金價將繼續走高。 1小時圖 – 今早亞盤金價再試2190後未有突破，現時阻力在2190(1)。自上週突破2147-50阻力後，過去48小時剛形成了短暫的上升通道(3)，若週二數據後，金價脫離上升通道(3)，交易區間可定在2155-85(2)。 日線圖 – 黃金自上週突破12月高位2088(4)後升勢正式開始，以早前調整區間1比1作估算(4.1)，目標2190已到。金價中線走勢現時已接近上升通道(5)頂部。上週五黃金沖高回落(6)，留意未來48小時若金價收盤在2178之上，會是金價繼續沖高的第一個訊號；否則初步回落且標可定在2147-50。 P. To
2024-03-04 @ 16:27
A series of US data was released last week. The durable goods orders and 4Q GDP announced early on Tue’s and Wed’s were both below market expectations. However, the price of gold remained in a narrow range. It wasn’t until Thur’s release of the core PCE price index that the gold price finally broke clear the resistance zone of 2035-40. On Fri, a new round of buying was triggered after a weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI pushed the price to the recent high of 2088.
The latest CME FedWatch indicates that the probability of a rate cut in May is now around 27%, while the likelihood for June has risen to around 70%. The rate cut news/rumours will push the gold price higher, however, the 2088 resistance still needs to be clear. Once the price passes 2088, the 1st target can be set at around 2045. A strict stop-loss order should be in place if you choose to short-selling above 2080.
1-Hour Chart – Gold has triggered a round of buying after escaping the triangle pattern (1) last Thur. The upward momentum has accelerated on Fri’s US session, passing the early Feb high of 2065(2) and reaching the Dec high of 2088(3). The buying momentum failed to carry on at the early Asian session back from the weekend. A high-volume market condition is needed for gold to clear the 2088 resistance, pay attention to Tue’s non-manufacturing PMI, Wed.’s Powell speech. Consider the trading range of 2065-88(4) for now.
Daily Chart – Gold escapes downward channel (4) last week, and the M-T trend shifted from a downtrend to a sideways consolidation, where the range has expanded from 1985-2065(5) to 1985-2088(5.1). The price needs to break above 2088 in terms of structure to initiate a new round of buying orders.
S-T ressitance 3
2100
S-T ressitance 2
2095
S-T ressitance 1
2085-88
Market price
2080
S-T support 1
2070
S-T support 2
2065
S-T support 3
2018-20
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
