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Gold Trend 28/10

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Gold Trend 28/10

The gold price hit our S-T target of 2750 last week, reaching a new high of 2758. However, the upward momentum failed to last, and the price couldn’t hold above 2750, dropping back to the weekly low of 2708. Towards the end of the week, the gold market once again priced in the risk premium ahead of the weekend’s geopolitical uncertainties, pushing the price back to 2750, and closing the week at 2747.

Last week, several Federal Reserve officials made comments suggesting a ‘cautious approach to rate cuts,’ which strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, the market had been grappling with potential retaliatory actions from Israel against Iran for the past two weeks, which finally materialized over the weekend. The attacks were relatively restrained, focusing solely on military sites in Iran and avoiding oil and nuclear facilities. Tehran, so far, has not issued an immediate response. With no significant casualties, the geopolitical tensions eased as markets opened on Monday. The NYMEX oil, most directly affected, gapped open 4% lower, and gold prices also opened $10 lower.

A few crucial US data releases are scheduled from Tuesday to Friday this week, including consumer confidence, third-quarter GDP, core PCE inflation, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate. A lot of uncertainty fills the week, but… considering most of the US economic figures released in the past few weeks have been relatively strong, we can anticipate downward pressures on gold prices prior to the outcome of these figures. As the US election enters its final stages, regardless of the outcome, there is a strong likelihood that the gap between the two candidates will narrow before election day, potentially leading to safe-haven funds flowing into the gold market to support the price, offsetting the downward pressure from strong data.

<< 1-hr chart >>

1-hr chart (above) > The price failed to hold above 2750 last week, causing the S-T trend to break below the upward support line (1). The upward momentum has begun to slow down, the support has shifted from the mid-week support line(2) to a slower pace(2.1) before the weekend. The key resistance zone is now sitting at last week’s high of 2750-2758 (4). If any US data falls short this week, the gold price may break above this resistance, triggering a new round of buying. However, before all those economic figures from the US, we can take advantage of the sideway range of 2710-50 (3) for S-T trading.

<< Daiy Chart >>

日線圖 (上圖)> 整體格局未有太大改變,關鍵阻力在 2750(5),而上升通道(6)仍然有效。


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風險提示​

*投資涉及風險。 閣下可自行决定利用本網站的資料、策略及交易訊號作學術及參考用途。1uptick 不能亦不會保證任何在本網站/應用程式中發表,現在或未來的買入或賣出評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現。1uptick不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。讀者在執行交易前應諮詢獨立專業意見。1uptick不會游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,閣下須為所有執行的交易負責。

© 1uptick Analytics 版權所有,不得轉載。

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