• China PMIs, inflation readings from Australia to Mexico due
• ECB, Turkey set to cut rates, Ukraine likely to hike again

US employers probably added jobs at a moderate pace in February at a time of federal government layoffs and a consumer spending slowdown.

Payrolls rose by 160,000 in February, a slight improvement from the 143,000 increase a month earlier yet softer than during the final months of 2024, according to the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4%.

Moderating US Employment Growth

Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will provide an update for Federal Reserve officials about momentum in the labor market that’s been the key support — at least until January — of household spending and the economy. However, rapid policy changes by the Trump administration — including the push by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to shrink the federal government and cut spending — risk elevating uncertainty about the outlook.

Listen to the Podcast: Will Elon Musk Trigger a US Government Shutdown?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak at a monetary policy forum Friday afternoon. Policymakers next meet March 18-19 and they’re expected to hold interest rates steady as they gauge the labor market and inflation trends as well as recent government policy shifts.

Other officials speaking in the coming week include Fed governors Adriana Kugler and Christopher Waller, as well as New York Fed President John Williams. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also speaking before the Economic Club of New York.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he’s confident US inflation will slow over the course of the year after a poll suggested Americans want President Donald Trump to focus more on bringing down inflation.

Recent surveys already show consumers are shedding optimism about business conditions and the job market over the next several months. Figures from the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global will help show whether manufacturers and service providers are seeing orders and business activity cool as managers assess a growing threat of tariffs. Trump’s administration is planning to enact 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on March 4, the same day Trump addresses a joint session of Congress and may drop other policy bombshells.

The February jobs report may also include the initial effects of a federal hiring freeze, though thousands of public-service layoffs occurred too late in the month to have a material impact this time around. And while federal jobs account for a small share of overall payrolls, funding cutbacks risk bleeding into the private sector that supports — and is supported by — government-funded programs.

Among economic data, the international trade report for January may show a continued surge in exports to the US as the loonie weakened and American importers looked to get ahead of potential tariffs. Employment data for February may similarly continue a trend seen the previous month, in which manufacturing jobs boomed, likely due to tariff front-running.