Gift thisUS employers likely added a solid number of jobs last month, showcasing a labor market that held steady in the face of mounting policy uncertainty.

Nonfarm payroll growth probably accelerated to 160,000 in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. They also anticipate the unemployment rate to hold at a historically low 4% rate.

Such a reading implies little impact from the Trump administration’s moves to shrink the federal government and growing concerns about the economic outlook. Going forward, economists anticipate the fallout from the president’s policies, including uncertainty around tariffs weighing on business decisions, to translate into weaker job growth.

“The February payroll report will provide a final snapshot of the labor market before the sudden lurch down in business confidence triggered by tariffs, as well as the federal spending cuts, starts to feed through to employment,” Pantheon Macroeconomics economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen wrote Wednesday.

US Payroll Growth Estimates for February

Government Payrolls

The surveys used to compile the report due Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were conducted before many of the firings began across federal agencies. But some economists expect a hiring freeze implemented on Trump’s first day in office took a toll on February government payrolls.

Citigroup Inc. is anticipating a below-consensus 135,000 increase in hiring in part due to weakness in government hiring. “Primarily this could reflect a slowing in federal employment – not from recently announced job losses but rather a hiring freeze that started in January,” economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note.

Bad Weather

Bloomberg Economics is projecting a subdued 65,000 advance in total payrolls, in part because the withdrawal of Biden-era fiscal support was amplified by the temporary funding freeze and by seasonality, which they say prompted state and local governments to hit the brakes on hiring. Severe weather also was a drag.

“We expect a tepid pace of job growth in February due to a combination of fiscal withdrawal and bad weather,” economists Anna Wong, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins wrote in a note Thursday. “A reversal of those factors should support payroll growth in March, but DOGE layoffs and spillovers to the private sector from cancelled federal contracts will also begin to show up in the data.”

Unemployment Rate

Forecasters widely expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4% — higher than the rate seen in recent years but still below the pre-pandemic average.

“Business executives continue to rein in hiring but are still holding off on layoffs as they navigate a more uncertain economic and policy environment,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY. Still, further policy uncertainty “could cause adjustments in business decisions with knock-on effects on hiring and wages as business leaders navigate higher input costs and retaliatory measures.” article