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Gold V.1.3.1 signal Telegram Channel (English) | 黃金交易訊號 V.1.3.1 Telegram 群組 (中文) |
Economic activity rose “slightly” since mid-January but businesses across the country reported uncertainty surrounding new policies from the Trump administration, particularly on tariffs, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.
Prices climbed “moderately” in most areas, with several regions reporting faster price increases compared to the previous period. Looking ahead, firms across the country “expected potential tariffs on inputs would lead them to raise prices, with isolated reports of firms raising prices preemptively.”
Tariff mentions came up 49 times in the Fed report released Wednesday, while variations of the word uncertainty appeared 47 times.
The Beige Book, which was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis using information gathered on or before Feb. 24, includes anecdotes and commentary on business conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Fed said “unusual weather conditions” in some areas weakened demand for leisure and hospitality.
“Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed with increased price sensitivity for discretionary items, particularly among lower-income shoppers,” according to the report.
The report showed a mixed employment picture, with seven areas indicating no change in the period. Multiple contacts cited uncertainty over immigration and other policies as influencing current and future labor demand.
“Wages grew at a modest-to-moderate pace, which was slightly slower than the previous report, with several districts noting that wage pressures were easing,” the report said.
The Beige Book is one of the regular economic briefing documents officials get before their policy meeting. Fed officials next meet March 18-19. Policymakers are widely expected to keep borrowing costs steady at that gathering.
Concerns about weakening growth have increased among economists and market participants in recent weeks, fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and speculation that other policies, like deportations and reduced immigration, could also restrain the economy.
District Highlights
- Minneapolis: “Searches for nonprofit C-suite positions that used to get around thirty applications ‘recently ballooned into the hundreds,’ according to a district recruiter.”
- Kansas City: “Most businesses expressed difficulty in passing higher costs to their customers, indicating potential demand destruction as a primary concern. Yet, business contacts indicated they were much more likely to scale back rather than take a hit on margins by softening pricing.”
- San Francisco: “Some contacts highlighted that higher-income households across the district continued to spend at a brisk pace and that their demand for luxury items remained robust.”
- Boston: “A Massachusetts restaurant industry contact said that sales in January 2025 were the weakest in years for any single month, even accounting for past seasonal patterns.”
- New York: “A shipping industry contact indicated that despite widespread apprehension among importers about the effect of tariffs and shifting trade policies, most are waiting until the changes are established before making any modifications to sourcing or shipping routes.”
- Richmond: “Some federal employees were laid off and some private sector business said they cut jobs in response to a reduction or cancellation of federal funding. Several other private sector firms reported slowdowns in their hiring.”
- Atlanta: “Many contacts reported difficulty setting prices and noted ambiguity around costs, largely as a result of uncertain international trade policy. Most firms said they expected to pass through the bulk of any additional costs to customers.”
- Chicago: “There were many contacts that reported having little trouble filling positions. One contact in retail said they had ‘resumes stacked to the ceiling.’”
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