Global Oil Demand Trends for 2024 and 2025

Modest Growth in Oil Consumption

Global oil demand is set to experience modest growth over the next two years. In 2024, demand is projected to rise by 840,000 barrels per day (kb/d), followed by a slight acceleration to 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025. By 2025, total global oil consumption is expected to reach 103.9 mb/d.

Key growth drivers include:

• Increased demand for petrochemical feedstocks
• Emerging Asia leading demand gains

However, demand for transportation fuels remains constrained due to behavioral and technological changes, including the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and improved fuel efficiency.

Regional Demand Insights

• China: The economic slowdown and widespread adoption of alternative fuels, such as EVs and high-speed rail networks, have caused a year-on-year decline in oil demand for several months.
• India and Brazil: These nations are stepping up to drive global oil demand growth, with India’s increase predicted to outpace China’s in 2024.

Global Oil Supply: Steady Increases Ahead

Global oil supply is expected to grow steadily, with an increase of 630 kb/d in 2024 and a further rise of 1.9 mb/d in 2025, bringing the total supply to 104.8 mb/d by 2025.

Non-OPEC+ countries will lead this growth, with notable production increases from:

• The United States
• Brazil
• Guyana
• Canada
• Argentina

These production gains highlight an ongoing shift in the oil market’s supply landscape as non-OPEC+ nations take on a more prominent role.

Inventory and Refinery Activity

Oil Inventories

Global oil inventories presented a mixed picture in late 2024:

• October saw a significant drawdown in global observed inventories, with levels rebounding in November due to increases in oil on water and non-OECD crude oil stocks.
• OECD industry stocks remain below the five-year average, reflecting ongoing volatility in oil storage trends.

Refinery Throughputs

Refinery activity is also set to peak in December, with crude runs averaging:

• 82.7 mb/d in 2024
• 83.3 mb/d in 2025

This uptick underscores the industry’s preparation for the anticipated demand fluctuations in key markets.

2024’s Oil Market Outlook: Calm but Cautious

As 2024 concludes, the oil market remains relatively calm, with crude oil prices hovering in the $70-75/bbl range. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of the potential for unexpected market shocks. Factors influencing this outlook include:

• Global economic sentiment
• Geopolitical tensions

Despite a stable start, the outlook for 2025 reflects softer demand growth due to slower development across several emerging and developing economies.