The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been navigating stormy seas in 2024, influenced by a myriad of intertwined factors including global economic shifts, monetary policy adjustments, and geopolitical tensions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for traders and economists to predict the future trajectory of the AUD/USD exchange rate.
The recent shift in global economic trends has significantly impacted the AUD/USD exchange rate. Key influences include:
The divergent monetary policies between Australia’s Reserve Bank and the US Federal Reserve have further exacerbated the AUD/USD weakness. While the Fed is set to increase rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained a more cautious approach, with interest rates remaining at historic lows. This policy divergence encourages capital flow towards the US, weakening the AUD.
Geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East and ongoing trade disputes, have also affected global markets, including the forex trading environment. These factors increase market volatility and risk aversion, leading investors to favor traditionally safer currencies like the US dollar.
Looking ahead, the prospects for the AUD/USD exchange rate hinge on several variables, including:
Major banks have provided their forecasts for the AUD/USD exchange rate. For instance, Westpac predicts the AUD will be worth 0.69 US cents by December 2024 and rise to 70c in Q1 2025. NAB forecasts the exchange rate will reach 0.69c by December 2024 and 0.71c by March 2025. ING forecasts the exchange rate will be at US$0.69 by Q4 2024 and remain steady at 69c in March 2025[1].
Technical indicators suggest that the AUD/USD is under pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated below 35, indicating increasing negative momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at above 34 indicates more strength in the trend’s direction. The immediate up-barrier is at 0.6549, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6625 and the November high of 0.6687[4].
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